1. El colapso de la demanda y el espejismo de los precios bajos.
Diversos análisis sugieren que los precios históricamente bajos del combustible durante el año 2020 no fueron producto de políticas gubernamentales, sino de la parálisis económica global causada por el COVID-19.
- Its the covid effect. Hurr durr we had such low fuel prices under trump! yeah, because a worldwide pandemic paralysed virtually all supply chains. Supply was high, the demand had cratered, so the price goes down.
- The national average price of gas briefly fell below 2gallon during the pandemic because of some obscure economic theory called supply and demand. Before that, it was 2003 so, the only way king trump can get gas prices under 2 is institute a lockdown.
- I keep thinking about how people credit trump for cheap gas, conveniently forgetting the primary reason was because demand tanked during the pandemic.
2. Desafíos en la producción de crudo y el sector del esquisto.
La industria petrolera enfrenta su mayor reto desde el inicio de la crisis sanitaria, con proyecciones que indican la primera caída anual en la producción de Estados Unidos en una década.
- Us oil output set for first annual drop since pandemic... Us oil production will fall next year for the first time since the covid-19 pandemic, according to a government forecast.
- Us shale sector in peril as oil price plunge rattles drillers - trump trade war and opec output surge create toughest challenge since the pandemic crash in 2020.
- The number of active oil and gas drilling rigs is at the lowest its been since early 2021 in the middle of the pandemic. Drill, baby, drill is an absolute fraud.
3. Impacto en las economías dependientes y la crisis en Rusia.
La caída de los precios internacionales del petróleo ha reducido los ingresos de las naciones exportadoras a niveles críticos, afectando severamente los presupuestos estatales.
- Russias oil and gas revenues have significantly declined, reaching multi-year lows not seen since the covid-19 pandemic, due to a combination of new us and eu sanctions.
- Russian oil prices have tumbled to their lowest levels since the pandemic after the u.s. Sanctioned rosneft and lukoil, further squeezing producers already facing sharp profit declines.
- December oil and gas revenue is expected to crash to pandemic lows, with revenue being about half december 2024s numbers. 2026 is going to be a truly catastrophic year for the russian economy.
4. Transición energética y reducción de emisiones post-pandemia.
A pesar de la inestabilidad, se observa una tendencia hacia la descarbonización, con inversiones en energías renovables superando a los combustibles fósiles por primera vez en años.
- Greenhouse gas emissions drop to pandemic levels in sign of local climate laws impact phasing out fuel oil in buildings, improved energy efficiency and cleaner, greener cars.
- Fossil fuel spending to fall for first time since pandemic decline is led by oil sector, where lower prices are forcing companies to reassess their plans, says iea.
- Worldwide, wind and solar are outpacing rising demand for electricity, meaning fossil fuel use will stay flat this year for the first time since the coronavirus pandemic.
5. Perspectivas del mercado y volatilidad de precios.
Los analistas advierten que la combinación de una oferta excesiva y una demanda global debilitada podría mantener los precios en niveles bajos durante el próximo periodo fiscal.
- Oil prices record steepest annual fall since covid pandemic oil oil markets have recorded their steepest annual fall since the covid pandemic and could be on track to plummet further.
- Oil prices are heading toward their steepest annual decline since the pandemic-driven collapse of 2020, as fears grow.
- Forecasters predict that 2026 will mark the cheapest year for gasoline since 2020, with a national average price of 2.97 per gallon, according to gasbuddy.