1. Dinámicas y Causas de la Inflación.
Esta sección aborda la naturaleza de la inflación, sus impulsores clave y cómo se manifiesta en diferentes sectores y economías. Se examinan los choques de oferta, la persistencia de la inflación y la influencia de factores como el poder de mercado y las políticas fiscales.
- How do supply shocks to inflation generalize? evidence from the pandemic era in europe.
- Persistent and transitory inflation in the euro area insights from global and domestic shocks.
- A new reason to hate grocery inflation measuring and interpreting inflation heterogeneity.
- The fiscal sources of euro area inflation through the lens of the bernanke-blanchard model.
- S alvarez-blaser, , a levchenko present evidence that inflation in advanced economies is highly influenced by the prices set by a small number of firms. These forces were a key driver of the 2021-22 inflation shock.
2. Expectativas y Percepciones de la Inflación.
Aquí se analiza cómo se forman, miden y anclan las expectativas de inflación, tanto a nivel de hogares como de empresas. Se explora la influencia de la información, los medios y las herramientas avanzadas en la percepción de los agentes económicos.
- Why have inflation expectations surged recently? a historical perspective.
- Anchoring of survey-based inflation expectations risk assessment relative to the inflation target.
- We studied how households update their inflation expectations. We show that households more frequently update their expectations when the signal is above the prior compared to when the signal is below. This helps explain why disinflations can be sluggish.
- The inflation attention threshold and inflation surges by . Link to the paper as well as other working papers of our center.
- Firms inflation perceptions and expectations respond within hours of new inflation data releases. Firm expectations are most responsive when inflation coverage in the media is elevated, suggesting a key role for the media in focusing attention on data releases.
- Inflation attitudes of large language models anesti, hill, joseph this paper investigates the ability of large language models llms, specifically gpt-3.5-turbo gpt, to form inflation perceptions and expectations based on macroeconomic price signals. We compare the llms output to ho.
3. Políticas Monetarias y Fiscales frente a la Inflación.
Esta sección se centra en las estrategias y desafíos de las autoridades monetarias y fiscales para gestionar la inflación. Se discuten los marcos de política, la transmisión de los choques y las implicaciones de las decisiones políticas en un entorno inflacionario.
- Implications of inflation dynamics for monetary policy strategies by hess chung, callum jones, antoine lepetit, and fernando m. Martin.
- The case for adaptive inflation targeting monetary policy in a hot and volatile world barmes, david claeys, irene dikau, simon pereira da silva, luiz awazu.
- Why bangladesh bank should think twice before cutting rates highlights rate cuts risk reigniting inflation via exchange-rate depreciation food inflation drives persistence largely immune to monetary policy.
- Central banks facing post-pandemic inflation often considered looking through supply shocks. However, guido traficante shows that such look-through strategies can amplify inflation when information is incomplete.
- Restrictive monetary policy reduces demand-driven inflation, and has no statistically significant effect on supply-driven inflation.
- Rbi launches discussion paper on inflation targeting framework, seeks public feedback ahead of 2026 review the reserve bank of india rbi on thursday released a discussion paper to review the flexible inflation targeting fit framework, with the statutory review of the target due by march 2026.
4. Medición, Pronóstico y Análisis de Datos de Inflación.
Esta parte explora las metodologías y herramientas utilizadas para medir y predecir la inflación, incluyendo el uso de datos desagregados, modelos de aprendizaje automático e inteligencia artificial. Se abordan las complejidades de la medición de precios y la identificación de puntos de inflexión.
- Renewal-rent smoothing 2 explains much of the lags from market rents to cpi shelter inflation. In a counterfactual exercise with λ1, we find much shorter lags in predicted cpi shelter compared to market rents.
- Assessing the discrepancy in us inflation data a technical analysis of institutional failures and regional price volatility in late 2025.
- Staff working paper 1143 by m buckmann boe, g potjagailo boe p schnattinger boe examines the drivers of post-pandemic inflation via a structured, interpretable ml model that provides insights into the non-linear sources of inflation dynamics.
- Getting less for the same price? explore how the cpi measures shrinkflation and its impact on inflation.
- Deepinflation an ai agent for research and model discovery of inflation. Ze-yu peng et. Al.
- New method detects inflation turning points using disaggregated price data, revealing early signals in argentinas 2024 disinflation and us tariffs in 2025, from alberto cavallo and gaston garcia zavaleta.
- Inflation forecasting ai models process millions of data points to predict price movements more accurately than traditional methods.