1. Descenso de la inflación y el inicio de los recortes de tasas.
Durante el periodo analizado, se observa una tendencia a la baja en la inflación general, lo que permitió al Banco de Inglaterra iniciar una serie de recortes en los costos de endeudamiento para estimular la economía.
- Uk inflation falls by more than expected to 3.2, adding to case for interest rate cut slowing pace of price rises in november makes bank of england cut to cost of borrowing on thursday more likely.
- Bank of england monetary policy committee voted 54 to reduce bank rate by 0.25ppt, to 3.75. Although above the 2 target, inflation now expected to fall back towards target more quickly in the near term.
- The bank of england has cut interest rates to 3.75, the lowest level since february 2023. The 0.25pp cut follows lower-than-expected cpi inflation of 3.2 in november.
2. La persistencia del IPC y la división interna en el Banco de Inglaterra.
A pesar de las caídas puntuales, la inflación mostró signos de resistencia, manteniéndose cerca del 3.8% en varios meses, lo que generó votaciones divididas (5-4) y una postura cautelosa entre los responsables de la política monetaria.
- Sticky uk inflation leaves november rate cut hanging in the balance snaps at 3.8, the latest uk inflation data certainly isnt welcome news for the bank of england.
- The bank of england has held interest rates at 4 despite policymakers stating they believe inflation has peaked.
- Bank of england holds interest rates steady at 4 following a tight 5-4 vote by the monetary policy committee. Signals hint inflation may have peaked.
3. El impacto del presupuesto de 2025 y las proyecciones hacia el objetivo del 2%.
Las medidas fiscales introducidas en el presupuesto de otoño fueron vistas como un factor clave para reducir las presiones inflacionarias, con proyecciones que sitúan el retorno al objetivo del 2% para la primavera de 2026.
- Finally, some good news. Bank of england sees budget cutting inflation by around 0.4-0.5 percentage points.
- The bank of england says inflation is set to fall closer to the 2 target early next year as it cuts interest rates to their lowest level in nearly three years.
- Budget2025 likely to see bank of england make 3 more interest rate cuts in 2026 leaving the rate at 3.25. Measures to reduce inflation like cutting energy bills, freezing rail fares and petrol duty could see inflation rate fall.
4. Riesgos de estanflación y la influencia de factores externos globales.
El informe destaca la preocupación por un escenario de bajo crecimiento combinado con precios altos, así como la influencia de las políticas de la Reserva Federal de EE. UU. y los aranceles internacionales en la economía británica.
- Stagflation is a major concern and dilemma for boe -- which side dominates will be key, if stagnation part then rates will continue to be lowered i think this is more likely.
- Unexpected us rate cuts could fuel uk inflation, says boe rate-setter, megan greene warns of potential impact on 10-year gilt yields, currencies and uk equity prices.
- Bank of england rate-setter swati dhingra said that us tariffs will drive growth and inflation lower as supply chains become less diverse.