1. Informes de Inflación Retrasados o Cancelados.
El cierre del gobierno de EE. UU. en 2025 provocó la suspensión y cancelación de informes cruciales sobre la inflación, dejando una brecha histórica en la serie de datos económicos.
- Importantly, the white house said today that there will be no inflation report for october because the data could not be collected due to the shutdown. While its possible that employment data from companies could be gathered after the fact, inflation data cannot, so it will be permanently missing.
- The next official inflation report for october is unlikely to be released due to the ongoing government shutdown, which has halted data collection by the bureau of labor statistics.
- The white house said on friday it had learned there likely will not be a release of inflation data next month due to the u.s. Government shutdown, which could leave a gap in a data series stretching back more than a century.
- The trump admin will permanently hide inflation and jobs reports for october. Inflation rose and jobs went negative during the shutdown. Bad news goes directly down the memory hole. Leavitt added that the consumer price index and jobs report for october are likely never released.
- The bureau of labor statistics is skipping publishing its already delayed report on october wholesale-price inflation, and will instead roll those figures into a postponed november report to be published in january.
2. Datos Publicados Distorsionados e Incompletos.
Los informes de inflación que sí se publicaron, especialmente los de septiembre y noviembre, fueron ampliamente criticados por economistas debido a la falta de datos y las metodologías de imputación utilizadas.
- Bls reported inflation for november came in lower than expected only because they cooked the numbers. They used 0 october inflation for sectors where data wasnt available due to the shutdown. That artificially reduced the november inflation calculation.
- Much missing data in november report on inflation, cpi. Hard to know what really happened to prices in november. All this due to government shutdown and refusal to allow these workers to come to work.
- Economists warned that a big drop in november inflation had more to do with data challenges caused by the government shutdown than with actual changes in the economy. Unfortunately, those data problems might be around for months to come. Wall street journal-unlocked.
- Its hard to take this data seriously. There was no data collection in october and limited collection in november,. A key reason inflation cooled unexpectedly is a big easing in rent costs. That doesnt match up with private sector data, and it doesnt.
- The actual rate of inflation is not 2.7. This resulted from imputation instead of actual data because of the shutdown and imputation is biased towards a zero rate of inflation. Bls was shutdown like almost all of the federal government and they are the data collectors but didnt.
3. Impacto en la Credibilidad y la Toma de Decisiones.
La falta de datos fiables y la percepción de manipulación generaron una profunda desconfianza en las estadísticas gubernamentales, complicando las decisiones de la Reserva Federal y afectando la planificación económica.
- William brangham reports on lessons from nations where trust in government data was lost. Consequences of manipulating data!
- Like the inflation report, the shutdown allowed the admin to make some assumptions i.e. Not real data. These reports are not credible and you should wait for the next ones when they are not making stuff up.
- The data is being collected and the november gap is starting to fade. It still takes a couple more months to see things clearly again. Nominally, inflation has held fairly steady. Now, can we trust these numbers anymore? i havent seen that discussed yet.
- Fed decisions distorted by phantom inflation, says stephen miranreleases of data on inflation and employment have been delayed by the recent record-length us government shutdown, obscuring fed policymakers view of .com.
- What happens when no one trusts a countrys economic data the inflation report was delayed due to the government shutdown and the white house said there will likely be no report next month.
4. Causas Específicas de la Distorsión.
La interrupción en la recopilación de datos afectó categorías clave como la vivienda y coincidió con eventos como las ventas del Black Friday, lo que llevó a suposiciones de inflación cero y a una subestimación de los precios reales.
- The shutdown oct 1 - nov. 12, stopped statisticians collecting typical inflation data in oct. Without that data bls assumed no price increases during icy for most categories. Moodys estimates cpi inflation would be around 2.7 if that data was included.
- I was skeptical of the news that inflation lessened in nov. Looks like i was right to be. Essentially, data wasnt collected during the shutdown and this only measured late november and may only reflect black friday sales.
- Housing is even more affected by this, for longer. Thats why the last 2 bls cpi reports dont have any credibility. Thus, the actual rate of inflation is 3.0 because thats from the last credible bls report which was before the shutdown.
- Because bls was shut down for 43 days, a month and a half, we didnt get prices for 36 of the goods in the cpi basket. When they dont have the current price for a good in the cpi basket, they assume its the same price as the previous month. Thats assuming zero inflation.
- Economists said that there were significant problems with the report. There was no october report, which also means no 3rd quarter report. Also, november numbers only started mid-month, when sale prices for black friday had already kicked in. So inflation is down but only bc of end of year sales.