1. Escalada drástica en los precios del petróleo y combustibles.
El inicio de las hostilidades ha provocado un aumento inmediato en el costo del crudo, con proyecciones que sitúan el barril por encima de niveles críticos de estabilidad.
- Inflation rates likely to surge after iran war starts and supply of oil is restricted note in last 12 months gas prices were falling. Starting monday this starts to reverse.
- Things are about to get even more expensive. The price of oil just crested the psychological 100 barrier.
- Oil just spiked 13. This isnt a blip. Its an inflation trigger. Strait of hormuz disruption higher crude higher gas stickier inflation.
2. El Estrecho de Ormuz como cuello de botella inflacionario.
La amenaza y el cierre de este corredor vital para el comercio energético mundial genera una presión sin precedentes sobre las cadenas de suministro globales.
- Shipping through the strait of hormuz20 of global oilnow under threat.
- Iran is claiming it has closed the strait of hormuz, thru which 15 of the worlds oil gas flows. Long-term this will cause prices to rise markets to become volatile.
- Strait of hormuz is a global inflation chokepoint. About 20 of the global oil supply moves through there, mostly fueling asia and partly europe.
3. Impacto directo en el costo de vida y productos básicos.
El encarecimiento de la energía se traslada rápidamente a los precios de los alimentos y otros bienes, afectando el poder adquisitivo de los hogares.
- Higher fuel prices 10 or more will directly translate into higher grocery prices soon. Everyone is already tired of inflation, and all this war will do is pile on more inflation for everyone.
- Even a short iran war screws fertilizer supplies which farmers need right now for the food we eat at xmas, so expect a 10 supermarket food price hike.
- Gas prices at the pump are rising fast -and they are just getting started. Per aa the average gallon of gas went from 2.80 to now about 3.30.
4. Reacción de los bancos centrales y política monetaria.
La nueva ola inflacionaria complica los planes de reducción de tasas de interés, obligando a las instituciones financieras a reconsiderar sus estrategias de control de precios.
- The conflict is likely to lift energy prices to levels sowing inflation. That could prompt central banks to raise interest rates, pushing up the costs of mortgages, car loans and other borrowing.
- Lengthy iran war could cause inflation spike, warns ecbs top economist, philip lane says extended conflict and disruption to energy supplies could also lead to sharp drop in eurozone output.
- Feds kashkari before iran war, inflation was heading in the right direction, but the conflict now clouds monetary policy outlook.
5. Riesgos de estanflación y recesión económica mundial.
Expertos advierten que la combinación de precios altos y bajo crecimiento podría derivar en un escenario de estanflación similar al de décadas pasadas.
- An extended conflict in the middle east... Could trigger global stagflation -- a troublesome blend of high inflation and anaemic growth -- due to spiking oil and gas prices, economists warn.
- If the war drags more a month oil will stay elevated, it will reaccelerate inflation, fed wont be able to cut leading to recession risk.
- The 1973 oil embargo led to a significant increase in oil prices, nearly tripling them, which caused widespread inflation and economic instability globally. Buckle up folks.