1. Disparidad entre cifras oficiales y la inflación real.
Existe un consenso entre analistas y ciudadanos sobre la falta de fiabilidad de los datos estatales, sugiriendo que la inflación real supera ampliamente los reportes de Rosstat.
- I think most sensible people accept the inflation rate is much higher than russia says. Which means their gdp growth is much lower than what they say.
- Official inflation is over 8 but real inflation is around 28. Wages are rising at around 15 if youre in the right industry but 90 of people are get nothing.
- The russian central bank and bond markets on the moscow exchange are grossly incompetent. Im thinking elvira knows what she is doing, and you do not, so im sticking with a 14-15 inflation rate.
2. La trampa de las tasas de interés y la estanflación.
El Banco Central de Rusia mantiene tasas de interés extremadamente altas para intentar frenar la inflación, lo que está asfixiando la inversión privada y el crecimiento económico.
- Isnt that what they call stagflation - a combination of high interest rates and high inflation? its happening in russia right now.
- The rcbs key rate is 16. That means inflation, real inflation, in russia is over 14. The bond market on the moscow exchange confirms inflation of at least 14.
- Russian interest rates are rising. Especially the longer duration ones. This means inflation expectations in the future went up.
3. El impacto del gasto militar en el presupuesto nacional.
La transición hacia una economía de guerra ha priorizado la producción de armamento, drenando las reservas de divisas y forzando aumentos de impuestos.
- Russia is pretty much bankrupt right now. The govt is about to run our of money tax hikes, money printing and inflation are the next options.
- The russian government is going to increase vat from 20 to 22 effective immediately. The threshold for paying vat will be lowered from annual revenue of 60 mn to just 10 mn rubles.
- The war economy fakes growth while oil revenues fall, reserves shrink, inflation hardens, and civilian industry withers.
4. Crisis en el costo de vida y escasez de productos básicos.
Los ciudadanos rusos enfrentan aumentos drásticos en los precios de alimentos esenciales y servicios, lo que reduce significativamente el poder adquisitivo.
- Russians are complaining about ever increasing food costs - cucumbers which were essential items are now so expensive most.
- Food prices, such as cucumbers 43 and tomatoes 21 have gone up since january. The kremlin is growing concerned about the russian economy.
- In russia, record taxes were collected on deposits... This is not due to an increase in wealth, but to a high key rate and inflation.
5. Vulnerabilidad del sector energético y ataques a infraestructura.
La reducción de la capacidad de refinación debido a ataques externos está generando escasez de combustible doméstico y presionando los precios al alza.
- Ukraine found the weakest point in russian economy oil. The price of gas is going through the roof, kicking inflation over 12 percent this year.
- It means that inflation on unleaded fuel is breaking records in russia. Many reasons, but the elephant in the room is ukraines drone strikes.
- The effect of the burning refineries may come at a delay but it will come and will contribute to the high inflation.
6. Perspectivas de inestabilidad y posible colapso bancario.
La dependencia de la impresión de dinero y el uso de mecanismos de emergencia como los préstamos repo sugieren una crisis sistémica inminente.
- The repo emergency mechanism has reached an all time high in russia, at 4.7 trillion rubles provided in liquidity!! if this isnt a sign of a banking crisis, then its a sign of massive government spending and inflation.
- Russians are emptying their bank accounts faster than ever 203b rubles withdrawn in just two weeks of september because they know the 2026 military budget means no relief.
- If there is a run on the banks, the collapse could happen within hours, as inflation continues to destroy the russian ruble.